Peace, Security & Defence

Keeping citizens safe and protecting democracy are fundamental parts of any social contract. There is a growing consensus that resilience, vigilance and a robust defence require a greater share of collective resources in a dangerous geopolitical environment.

Europe will need a decade of defence investment to rebuild deterrent capabilities run down since the Cold War. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the EU should thoroughly assess the balance in spending priorities between emerging and disruptive capabilities and legacy-heavy capabilities.

While NATO will remain Europe’s central collective defence organisation, the EU must use its broader toolbox to meet European countries’ commitments to stronger defence and to be able to act in crises where NATO or the United States choose not to engage. This includes building on the success of collective vaccine purchases during the pandemic, ammunition procurement for Ukraine and using the European Defence Fund and European Peace Fund to develop and procure key military enablers to fill existing capability gaps.

It also requires strengthening defences in 21st-century domains, including developing space defence capabilities, revamping the AI Act while also integrating AI tools into its risk preparedness policies and planning, and investing in developing a secure quantum computing infrastructure and supporting the development of quantum-safe cryptography.

Enlargement has been and remains one of the EU’s most effective foreign policy tools to stabilise its strategic environment. Member states must seize the geopolitical moment and give high priority to bringing Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and all the Western Balkans countries into the Union provided they meet EU standards durably.

In a new approach to citizens’ responsibility for collective defence and resilience, the EU should adopt a ‘total defence’ concept inspired by the Finnish and Swedish models to enhance societal resilience in all spheres of private and public life. This may also mean reintroducing compulsory military service or training and/or compulsory civil defence service in peacetime. In order to build resilience against hybrid warfare, the EU should create forums for regular public-private-military consultation to anticipate hybrid threats, develop systematic information-sharing and strengthen advance planning.