Strategic foresight: a zero-sum game? — The EU Strategic Compass and NATO 2030

In her current role, Oksana Antonenko advises senior decision-makers in private and public sectors on political, regularity and security risks. She spent over 25 years analysing Russian politics and foreign policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London School of Economics and Harvard Kennedy School of Government. She has worked extensively on regional cooperation and security challenges in the Black Sea region, including conflicts in the Caucasus, Turkey-Russia relations and Ukraine’s security challenges. Antonenko is a Global Fellow at the Kennan Institute in Washington DC and a member of the EU-Russia Expert Group on Foreign Policy.

Benedetta Berti is a foreign policy and security researcher, analyst, consultant, author and lecturer. Her work focuses on armed groups and internal wars. Berti is the author of four books, including “Armed Political Organizations: From Conflict to Integration” (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013) and her work and research have appeared in various publications, including Al-Jazeera, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs magazine, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, among others. An Eisenhower Global Fellow and a TED Senior Fellow, Berti is also Associate Researcher at the Institute for European Studies at Vrije Universiteit Brussels and a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

As an officer of the armoured corps, General Robert Brieger has worked on various assignments in the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence. In addition to having previously served as the former chief of staff of the Minister of Defence, Brieger is the former head of the Logistics Planning and Coordination Division and of the Operational Requirements Directorate. He was appointed force commander of the EU-led Operation EUFOR ALTHEA in Bosnia and Herzegovina, prior to which he was also the Austrian contingent in Kosovo and chief of staff of the 9th Armoured Infantry Brigade in Lower Austria.

João Gomes Cravinho is a seasoned Portuguese diplomat and politician. Prior to his current appointment, Gomes Cravinho focused his attention on the world’s top emerging markets, acting as the EU ambassador to India and Brazil. He also served as the secretary of state for foreign affairs and cooperation in Portugal. Earlier in his career, he was a lecturer on international relations at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Coimbra, as well as a guest teacher at ISCTE – Lisbon University Institute and NOVA University Lisbon. He has also authored a book, “Visões do Mundo”, as well as numerous articles in specialised academic publications and newspapers.

Mary Fitzgerald is a researcher and analyst specialising in the Mediterranean region with a particular focus on Libya. She has consulted for a number of international organisations including in the areas of peacebuilding and civil society. She has worked with the International Crisis Group (ICG), the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) among others. She is a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, King’s College London and an Associate Fellow at ISPI in Milan. Mary has also worked on wider initiatives with UNESCO, the Anna Lindh Foundation, the British Council and other cultural organisations. Her writing has appeared in publications including Foreign Policy, The New Yorker, The Washington Post, Financial Times and The Guardian.

With over two decades of experience in cybersecurity, Jane Frankland is one of the most celebrated female influencers in the world and has been named a UNESCO trailblazing woman in tech. As the Founder and CEO of KnewStart, Frankland supports women in joining and remaining in the field of cybersecurity. Her mission is to make women in cybersecurity the standard, not the exception. She frequently participates in leading industry events as a keynote speaker and awards judge, and regularly shares her expertise with governments and media. The best-selling author is also currently writing her third book. Previously, Frankland has worked as an executive for world renown consultancies and first built her own global hacking firm in the late 1990s.

In his current position at the EEAS, Charles Fries is involved in the EU’s strategic compass initiative. A career diplomat, Fries has served as the ambassador of France to Turkey and Morocco and has also held several positions within the French government. He was the advisor for European affairs in the office of former minister of foreign affairs, Alain Juppé, technical advisor in charge of European affairs at the diplomatic cell of former French president, Jacques Chirac, and diplomatic advisor to former French prime minister, François Fillon, in parallel to serving as secretary general of European affairs.

Prior to her appointment as state secretary, Cristina Gallach was the high commissioner of the Government of Spain for the 2030 Agenda. She previously headed the Equal Opportunities Office of the Council of the European Union in Brussels and has held several positions at the UN, including under-secretary-general, special advisor to the Secretary-General, head of the Department for Public Information and under-secretary general for communications and public information. Gallach has also previously served as head of public relations and spokesperson for the Council of the European Union.

In parallel to her current position at the EEAS, Tania Latici is an Associate Fellow with the Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), in which roles her work focuses on transatlantic relations. Lațici was also appointed by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg to co-lead the NATO2030 Young Leaders advisory body to assist the NATO2030 process. A former Denton transatlantic fellow at CEPA, she has also been recognised as a GLOBSEC Young Leader and a Warsaw Security Forum New Security Leader.

Prior to his nomination at NATO, General Philippe Lavigne served as the chief of staff at the French Air and Space Force. He is the former director of the French Chief of Defence’s office and information director within the Joint Staff of the Armed Forces. Between these two postings, Lavigne commanded the Kabul International Airport and supervised the transfer of responsibility for the airport to the Afghan civilian authorities. He previously served as deputy director at the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security in Paris, prior to which he contributed to the planning of peacekeeping and humanitarian operations at the Joint Strategic Planning and Command Operations Centre.

In her current position, Molly Montgomery is responsible for relations with Western Europe and the European Union. Prior to re-joining the Department of State, Montgomery was a Senior Vice President in the Europe practice at Albright Stonebridge Group and a non-resident fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Previously, Montgomery spent more than a decade as a career Foreign Service officer. In the White House, she served as Special Advisor to the Vice President for Europe and Eurasia. Her overseas assignments included U.S. Embassies Riga, Sarajevo, and Kabul and U.S. Consulate General Dubai. She also served in the State Department’s Office of Eastern European Affairs and Executive Secretariat.

Pierre Pozzi Belforti is a venture capital investor and the Co-Founder and Chairman of Aerendir Global Technologies, a European start-up based in the Silicon Valley, specialised in a revolutionary technology based on human brain signal for a multitude of AI applications, such as anonymous identification, age and gender and anti-robots, in a totally Cloudless way, ensuring each human is in absolute control of its digital and cyber environment. Pozzi Belforti is also a Professor at the Executive Program at Sciences Politiques Paris, HEC Paris and Solvay Business School in Brussels. He is also a member of the Venture Capital Joint Selection Jury on Start Up and Scale Up at HEC – Ecole Polytechnique Paris. He regularly speaks at international conferences and debates, such as the Politico AI Summit 2020, and is the co-author of the book “La fin des manipulateurs – comment mettre au pas les géants de la Silicon Valley”.

Andrea G. Rodríguez is an expert in emerging technologies, whose research focuses on the strategic consequences of quantum information science and artificial intelligence (AI). In addition to her role at CIDOB, she also serves as a member of the Programme Committee at the European Cybersecurity Forum (CYBERSEC) and Lead Researcher at the Global Observatory of Urban Artificial Intelligence (GOUAI), a joint initiative of CIDOB and the cities of Barcelona, Amsterdam and London that aims to support members’ AI policy work with evidence-based knowledge. Rodríguez is a NATO 2030 Young Leader.

Retiring from NATO in September 2018 after 38 years at the organisation, Jamie Shea has occupied a number of senior positions at NATO across a wide range of areas, including external relations, press and media, and policy planning. As NATO’s spokesperson, he was the face of the alliance during the Bosnia and Kosovo conflicts. He later worked as the director of policy planning in the private office of former secretary general Rasmussen during the preparation of NATO’s 2010 Strategic Concept. Shea is also a regular lecturer and conference speaker on NATO and European security affairs.

Kadi Silde currently leads and coordinates policy planning, NATO and EU matters, and international cooperation at the Estonian Ministry of Defence, where she has also previously served as the deputy director and then director of the policy planning department. Prior to her current role, she worked at the European Commission on the European Defence Fund. During the Estonian Council Presidency, Silde was in charge of defence matters and served as the coordinator for the Ministry of Defence at the Permanent Representation of the EU. Silde has been awarded a Cross of Merit for her contribution to developing NATO policy in 2015 and to Estonia’s EU Council Presidency in 2018.

chair of the global law firm’s national security practice, during which time he also served as chairman of the US-Iraq Business Dialogue. Sullivan has previously held senior positions at the US Justice, Defense and Commerce Departments, most notably as the deputy secretary of commerce and the general counsel of the Department of Commerce.

Paul Taylor is a Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe and the author of the think tank’s European Defence Cooperation report series. He previously spent four decades working for Reuters as a foreign correspondent in Paris, Tehran, Bonn and Brussels, as bureau chief in Israel/Palestine, Berlin and Brussels, as chief correspondent in France, as diplomatic editor in London, and finally as European affairs editor. Taylor’s assignments have included covering the Iranian revolution, the Cold War Euromissile crisis, the 1991 Gulf War, German reunification, the Maastricht summit, France in the 1990s, EU enlargement, the Eurozone crisis and the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt.