Breaking down the frontline: what are the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive?

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Breaking down the frontline: what are the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive?
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Although the Ukrainian military has made significant breakthroughs in the Zaporizhian and Donetsk oblasts, there is an ongoing debate among analysts and military experts about the pace of Ukraine’s advance and its potential for significant territorial gains in the near future. However, some argue that the aim of the counteroffensive is not to regain territory that is currently occupied by Russia but to disrupt Moscow’s communication and supply lines connecting Crimea with Russia.

While Kyiv’s strategy calls for an equal deployment of troops in the south and the east, a number of US military officials have advocated for a concentrated counteroffensive in the south to save troops and ammunition. Despite these differences, the West has chosen to breach some of Russia’s previously defined ‘red lines’ by providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, which will be followed by F-16 fighter jets early next year. Grappling with ammunition and personnel shortages, Vladimir Putin has held discussions with his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong Un, regarding the provision of artillery ammunition and may launch a second wave of reserve mobilisation later this year.

This event offered expert analysis on the current state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, assessing its progress, main objectives and future prospects. The debate also shed more light on the current state of Western military and political support for Kyiv, as well as the counteroffensive’s impacts on the Kremlin’s political establishment and Russian society as a whole.

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Breaking down the frontline: what are the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive?
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Expand Breaking down the frontline: what are the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive?
  • What are the main obstacles that the Ukrainian military faces in the current phase of its counteroffensive? Can the Ukrainian military disrupt ground communication and supply lines between Russia and Crimea in the coming months?
  • What is the current status of ammunition stockpiles and the readiness of combat troops for both Russia and Ukraine?
  • What military capabilities does Ukraine need to conduct the counteroffensive at a faster pace? Will F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles be a game-changer on the battlefield?
  • What is the overall impact of Ukraine’s drone strikes against targets inside Russia, such as transport and communication hubs, as well as Russia’s Black Sea fleet?
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Ben Hodges
Ben Hodges

Lieutenant General (Retired), Former commanding general of United States Army Europe and NATO Senior Mentor for Logistics

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Prior to his current position of Senior Mentor for Logistics at NATO, Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges of Senior Mentor notably served as commanding general of US Army Europe. He also formerly held the position of senior advisor to Human Rights First. Previously, Hodges held the Pershing chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). Throughout his career, his operational assignments included service in Iraq and serving as the director of operations at Regional Command South in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

Maria Snegovaya
Maria Snegovaya

Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Postdoctoral Fellow at Georgetown University

Show more information on Maria Snegovaya

Maria Snegovaya is a Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at CSIS and a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service. She studies Russia’s domestic and foreign policy, as well as democratic backsliding in post-communist Europe and the tactics used by Russian actors and proxies who exploit these dynamics in the region. Her research and commentary have appeared in a number of publications, such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Economist, and Foreign Policy.

Henri Schricke
Henri Schricke

Vice Admiral (Retired) and Director at the Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN)

Show more information on Henri Schricke

Henri Schricke currently directs the Digital Sovereignty and Cybersecurity division at IHEDN, having previously served as the French military representative to NATO. After entering the French Navy, he served in numerous assignments in France and abroad, mostly dealing with operations or international relations. After three command tours at sea, he was appointed to the French defense minister’s private office, where he was in charge of international relations. Schricke has also held the positions of French defense attaché in the United Kingdom and head of international affairs at the French Defense Staff.

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