In Conversation With – European elections 2024: what will the future look like?

Friends of Europe recently hosted a discussion with their Trustee, Pascal Lamy, former Director-General of the World Trade Organization and former EU Commissioner for Trade, to analyse the outcomes of the 9 June European Parliamentary elections. Lamy provided an insightful overview, emphasising the continuity and predictability of the election results within the broader context of European political trends.

The rise of the far-right in Europe aligns with a long-standing trend dating back to the first European elections in 1979. Consequently, the 2024 election results did not come as a surprise, continuing this decade-long trajectory. The new European Parliament maintains a pro-European majority, primarily composed of Christian and Social Democrats. However, the relationship between the extreme-right, right and centre-right is becoming increasingly complex. It is expected that the Parliament’s heterogeneity will pose challenges in navigating increasingly complex dynamics.

Additionally, the connection between the Parliament and the Council, elected through national elections, suggests that the political shifts in member states will significantly impact EU-level decisions. Major EU countries like France and Germany are currently experiencing political weakness, contrasting with Italy’s strong position under Meloni, who emerged as a notable election winner and aims to assert her influence within the EU power structure. These evolving dynamics will shape the future direction of EU policies and governance.

A significant observation made during the event was the contrasting performance of far-right parties in national versus European elections as far-right parties in governments tended to perform poorly in the European elections, whereas those in opposition fared better. This pattern underscores the differing dynamics at play between national and EU-level politics. The landslide successes at the European level of far-right parties from founding member states was noted as a novelty.

Despite the increased presence of far-right elements, the pro-EU majority in the European Parliament remains intact, likely securing Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election as Commission President. The impact of tumultuous national politics is expected to reflect more in the composition of the European College of Commissioners and the European Council than in the European Parliament, with national governing coalitions influencing these directly.

Looking ahead, the key priorities for the next European institutional cycle were outlined: defence and security, economic security and budgetary challenges, and the Green Deal.

There is confidence that the new Parliament would maintain a strong pro-EU and pro-Ukraine stance, despite the far-right’s presence. Indeed, while there is a pro-Russian constituency on the far-right there is also a strong pro-nationalist and pro-European defence constituency. Economic security efforts will certainly not decelerate, but the acceleration took place under the current mandate.

The Green Deal will continue to be one of the policy priorities, reflecting public opinion’s focus on addressing climate change. Legislative achievements in the current cycle have been solidified into binding laws, providing reassurance regarding the continuity of the landmark strategy.

The Green Deal faces challenges with ‘green fatigue’ likely to grow as the costs of transition and environmental damage become more pronounced in the coming years. The balance between sustainability and competitiveness was highlighted, emphasising that businesses must align with the public policy direction, indicating a shift towards integrating sustainability into their operational strategies.

The big political rendez-vous will be the negotiations for the Multiannual financial framework from 2028 to 2034, where a long-term vision and strategy is required. These negotiations will host the real political debates needed for the establishment of a multi-annual budget at the level of something as large as the EU.

This event took place in person in Brussels. Follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn or Instagram, and join the #Voices4Choices conversation.

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