A new era of EU-China climate leadership

The conclusion of the recent COP29 in Baku resulted in a mixed bag. This year’s negotiations unfolded amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and South Sudan, while elections worldwide, particularly in the United States, have signalled shifts in the geopolitical landscape, creating uncertainty for the future of international climate cooperation. Yet, the urgency of addressing climate change has never been clearer. The outcomes of COP29 have this year once again underscored a stark reality: waiting for a more stable geopolitical moment is not an option. Amid such shifts, the European Union and China have a pivotal opportunity to demonstrate climate commitment, cooperation and leadership, advancing ambitious climate efforts despite varied political dynamics and the complexities of their partnership.

Sustaining climate momentum: where the EU and China can lead in multilateral cooperation

In 2025, the EU and China will mark 50 years of diplomatic relations. This presents a timely opportunity to strengthen bilateral climate engagement and provide the leadership needed to maintain confidence in global climate action and cooperation in the run-up to COP30. A robust EU-China climate cooperation would send a powerful signal of commitment to the Paris Agreement, helping foster stability and progress in multilateral climate efforts, even as the world’s second largest emitter plans to exit the agreement.

COP29 showcased China’s willingness to play a constructive role in the COP process, acting as a bridge-builder in recognition of the precarious state of global climate politics. While strategic in avoiding direct commitments on contentious issues like mitigation, China supported progress where it aligned with its interests. The EU emerged as an important interlocutor to China, including around end-game negotiations needed on the new finance deal and for the overall COP29 effort. This dynamic provides an example of future EU-China collaboration for climate diplomacy, safeguarding global progress, as it did when the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement during Trump’s first presidency.

The dual nature of the climate relationship: competition and cooperation

The conflicting paradox of cooperation and competition is frequently highlighted in EU-China relations. The often-cited triad from the EU’s China strategy– China as a partner, competitor and systemic rival- was designed to reflect the complexity of the relationship and avoid framing it as an either-or choice. However, growing trade tensions are increasingly tilting the delicate balance between cooperation and competition. Yet, when it comes to climate action, both approaches must go hand-in-hand.

Climate action is a natural area for collaboration between the EU and China. Both have experienced the severe impacts of climate change firsthand and as two of the largest greenhouse gas emitters, they share a significant responsibility and vested interest in combating it. However, the notion that climate collaboration can operate independently of broader geopolitical dynamics is increasingly unrealistic. In recent years, the EU-China relationship has faced mounting challenges, with competition frequently overshadowing cooperation. These tensions are compounded by the EU’s need to navigate escalating US-China trade frictions, its own trade issues with China and its push to safeguard competitiveness under the Green Deal, alongside China’s “no-limit” partnership with Russia. As the EU enters a new political cycle, competition with China has taken centre stage, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pursuing her economic and geopolitical “de-risking” strategy in her second mandate.

Cooperation is non-negotiable. The climate crisis demands immediate action. Delays or missteps in EU-China climate cooperation could result in lost opportunities for achieving global climate goals.

As demonstrated at this year’s COP, joint climate diplomacy between the EU and China is crucial, as it has been in past COP conferences, including their pivotal role in establishing the Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015. Sustaining this united stance is vital. Looking ahead at the likely political landscape in the US and beyond, a cohesive EU-China leadership becomes even more critical in ensuring continued global progress on climate action.

There is also ample space for EU-China technical cooperation in areas like grid management, energy efficiency, and carbon pricing- natural win-win spaces for driving decarbonisation while delivering mutual economic benefits. Another promising area for collaboration is methane reduction, where both sides should build on the outcomes of the recent methane summit in Baku to enhance joint efforts to curb emissions.

The EU and China have explored numerous avenues for cooperation with varying success. There is reason for optimism that they can build on these existing frameworks for future collaboration-whether at the political, technical, bilateral, multilateral or even subnational level. Both sides should enhance their partnership by deepening bilateral climate and green economy dialogues and reviving the annual Ministerial on Climate Action meeting (MoCA).

While cooperation is vital, competition can also be a strong driver for climate action, particularly in technology development and international climate finance. Tensions in the cleantech sector can be harnessed to stimulate positive climate competition, fostering a “race to the top” in ambition, setting higher standards and driving innovation in green technologies. As the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and investor in renewables, China is playing a critical role in the global green transition. The EU has relied on affordable Chinese cleantech to decarbonise its energy, stabilise electricity costs and reduce dependence on Russian exports, while the European market has helped Chinese manufacturers scale and cut costs. However, with competitiveness, strategic autonomy and economic security now at the top of the EU’s agenda, tensions are bound to escalate, exposing the complex balance between cooperation and competition in the green transition.

Another area of positive competition lies in international climate finance, especially for developing countries. It will become increasingly important as both development needs and climate change impacts increase. Competition between the EU and China to be developing countries’ partner of choice can remain constructive if guided by a shared interest in maintaining multilateral climate action. Decisions driven solely by domestic competitiveness goals risk sidelining decarbonisation and development needs, eventually undermining trust in the climate transition. Instead, competition should focus on raising climate ambition and advancing the global clean economy in the long-run, motivating superior climate finance packages to third countries.

The relationship between China and the EU might be increasingly complex, but where the door for climate co-operation may be closing, there is space to advance through managed climate competition.

Recommendations for the EU

• Demonstrate climate leadership. The EU and China must reaffirm their role as global climate leaders, demonstrating that climate action remains central to their strategic agendas. This includes consistency in their climate policies, financing commitments and diplomatic efforts to build trust and drive joint progress. The EU and China should use all diplomatic tools available, including their flagship Ministerial of Climate Action to drive climate progress towards COP30 and join up forces for global nationally determined contribution (NDC) ambition momentum. The EU must ensure that its climate agenda remains central to its foreign policy, not only as a response to geopolitical and domestic complexities but as a strategic tool to enhance its competitiveness, bolster the resilience of fragile partners, and solidify its position as a reliable global leader, ultimately supporting its long-term goals of security and strategic autonomy.
• Balance competition and cooperation. The EU must adopt a hybrid approach, blending collaboration and constructive competition, recognising that climate cooperation cannot exist in a vacuum. The EU should ensure that both elements complement rather than conflict. This means being strategic in areas where cooperation offers the greatest benefits- such as renewable energy deployment and carbon pricing- while embracing healthy competition in sectors like cleantech innovation and climate finance.
• Prioritise decarbonisation. The EU should ensure that competitive pressures do not undermine global decarbonisation goals, essential to its long-term security and leadership. A key focus should be on deepening commitments to emissions reductions through robust NDCs. The EU should lead by example by updating and enhancing its own NDC, demonstrating its dedication to the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. Simultaneously, the EU should encourage China to strengthen its NDC, urging ambitious mid-term and long-term targets. By fostering alignment on NDC enhancements, the EU and China can cement their roles as leaders in global climate governance, promoting an ambitious trajectory towards net-zero emissions.

Conclusion

The stakes for global climate action have never been higher. In an increasingly fragmented world, EU-China climate leadership offers a beacon of optimism. By leveraging both competition and cooperation, these two global powers can drive ambitious climate action, even in a challenging geopolitical landscape.

As the world navigates this critical juncture, the EU and China must seize the opportunity to act as pillars of climate diplomacy, ensuring that the green transition remains a top priority. Their partnership- however complex- holds the potential to shape the future of global climate governance, fostering progress for decades to come.