It is time to mobilise European industry for Ukraine's victory

“The Finns ask for bullets, and we give them beans; they ask for powder, and we give them peas; they seek cannon, and they get broomsticks; they covet planes, and we send them pancakes. We must aid Finland, and we must render that aid quickly. Delay in this Chamber is dangerous.” – Congressman Emanuel Celler, 27 February 1940

There are many parallels between Finland’s 1939-1940 Winter War against Soviet attack and the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine. In both cases, the war was started by Moscow under a false pretence. In both cases, the defenders’ valiant struggle raised considerable support in other Western nations. However, the insufficiencies of Western democracies’ support to embattled Finland have a sombre message for today, as allies dither in supplying Ukraine with the arms it so badly needs. Finland had to settle for a bitter peace and endure more devastating conflict on its territory during the Second World War. The risks to Ukraine’s success are evident as its military effectiveness is limited by insufficient ammunition.

We cannot let Ukraine lose. Anything Russia could call victory would be destabilising for the whole of Europe. As Europeans, we must ensure that Russia gains nothing from its brutal war of aggression. There is no reason to assume that Russia would not use a favourable peace to rebuild and strengthen its military forces in preparation for renewed aggression.

It is also entirely possible, if not probable, that any territorial advances from the Ukraine war could embolden Russia to launch a military challenge against NATO.

Russia’s long-term economic and demographic prospects are bleak. They could drive Putin to take new, irrational risks. Warnings of possible Russian aggression are coming thick and fast from many directions, including senior government and military officials in  Sweden, Poland, Germany, Estonia, Norway and Belgium.

Many echo the words of London’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI): “Europe must urgently prepare to deter Russia without large-scale US support.”

A key element in enabling Ukrainian victory is industrial production.

We need to mobilise European industry to function in a war economy. Russia has already done this. With support from countries like India, it might be able to replace its destroyed equipment by 2028. By then, it may well have legions of battle-hardened veterans to use the renewed arsenal.

Meanwhile, support from the United States to Ukraine is becoming unreliable. That increases pressure for Europe to step up its military backing.

Incremental improvements in production capacity are not enough. We need to scale up European material capacity to a new level. Any remaining self-imposed constraints on the nature of material support must be abandoned.

Ukraine should promptly receive all the tools it needs, from top-notch missiles to Western fighter jets. Had this been done early in 2022, the course of the war could have been very different. In addition to advanced weapon systems, there is a shortage of basic ammunition. Artillery shells in particular must be supplied rapidly and in large quantities.

Training is crucial for the effective use of military supplies. Western training operations need to be expanded and strengthened, ensuring they align precisely with the realities on Ukraine’s frontlines. In addition to weapon supplies, international industrial investments are crucial to reinforce the resilience of Ukrainian society and the economy as a whole. Spare parts, maintenance and new infrastructure are urgently required.

All of this comes with a price. However, the alternatives are much more costly, calling into question our democracy, freedoms and the values that underpin modern Europe. Those values cannot be negotiable and must be defended. The European Union and its member states must make a determined stand against Russian aggression. If one member state vetoes military aid at EU level, the others should fill the gap outside EU structures.

In the long run, EU treaties should be amended to allow foreign policy to be conducted on the basis of qualified majority voting instead of unanimity.

The EU has already taken vital steps to help Ukraine on the road to victory. The €50bn commitment known as the Ukraine Facility, and moves in the European Parliament to guarantee effective decision making are exactly the kind of thing we need to ensure a peaceful future not only for Ukraine but for Europe as a whole.

We must continue on this road and further strengthen our Union with a European Defence Technological and Industrial Base, common procurement and ammunition deliveries. Finding a legally sound way to take advantage of the over €200bn in  frozen Russian central bank assets in the EU can play a significant role in this process.

Europe is at war. Failure to recognise that, and more delays or hesitation in supporting Ukraine could have drastic consequences for the whole of Europe in the very near future.

This article is part of Friends of Europe’s Ukraine Initiative series, find out more here. The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.