The AI Frontier: Ukraine’s role in the future of warfare

Over the past years, the development of artificial intelligence (AI) has been accelerating, and its use both in civilian and military domains is rapidly becoming more common and even labelled as of ‘national strategic importance’. For example, the US Department of Defence, has had its eye on this technology for years, as it provides a decision advantage on the battlefield through a “more modernised, data-driven and AI-empowered military’, as pointed out by Deputy Secretary of Defence Kathleen Hicks. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has leveraged innovation to gain such a decision advantage, gaining a competitive edge over a larger and stronger adversary. Apart from extensive use of drones, which provides a cheaper and more efficient response to bulky military vehicles, Ukraine has used AI systems to have better control of the battlefield and complement its other civilian and military operations. In fact, the country’s innovative use of AI has garnered so much attention that some media outlets, such as  Time magazine, have labelled the war in Ukraine as ‘The First AI War’.

While it may be considered far-fetched by some, Ukraine is undeniably changing the nature of warfare and redefining the role of emerging technologies in global security. The war has created incentives for innovation the country, fighting for its survival, has used it as  leverage to level the playing field. It has succeeded in mobilising its domestic talent, by increasing the speed of adoption of the emerging technology and allowing successful startups to emerge. It has also closely cooperated with international companies to bring AI support straight to the battlefield. So, how has Ukraine managed to leverage AI during the war, and are we witnessing a glimpse of future warfare?

Building an AI powerhouse: Ukraine’s tech path 

The structure of Ukraine’s economy could be a major enabling factor in mainstreaming AI. It is debatable whether Benjamin Jensen, a senior fellow at CSIS, was right when saying that Ukraine has been developing AI at a more impressive pace than the US and China while  ‘building it from the bottom up’ and being ‘antifragile, small and scalable.’ However, it is true that the change has been driven by hundreds of SMEs, making Kyiv a major AI hub in Europe. Kyiv outperforms a number of European cities such as Brussels and Manchester and ‘ranks high in the region, punching well above its weight’, as explained by Andrea Randa, Director of Research at CEPS.

Ukraine is the third largest electricity producer in Eastern Europe and twelfth in Europe (ninth in terms of electricity production capacity), which is important for maintaining AI infrastructure, Ukraine has been rapidly building its IT industry. The IT industry accounted for 4.9% of Ukraine’s GDP in 2022, created a pool of 346,000 workers (with a 78.4% increase between 2018 and 2023) and a space for over 2,300 IT companies.  When it comes to the latter, 75% of these companies are small enterprises and about 17% are medium-sized companies. Importantly, the sector continued to grow despite health and war crises. Software exports grew by 20.4% during the pandemic and by 23% in the first six months of 2022. This trend continued into 2023, with an increase in exports by 10% despite the war.  At least 15% of the IT workforce also supports cyber forces, where AI is being increasingly used.

Having a strong IT sector is an important aspect of developing AI. Companies in Ukraine that are currently adopting AI in their operations point out that both software and AI engineers often use similar skills such as programming languages or knowledge of automation. With these skills, the transition to the AI domain is easier. Currently, Ukraine holds second place in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) when it comes to the number of IT experts and AI companies. Ukraine has 243 AI companies, 60 of which based in Kyiv . This August, the  UNIDO-CEPS joint report on AI competitiveness in Ukraine  provided new insights. The report suggests that Ukraine’s defence sector ranks second when it comes to competitiveness and AI penetration compared to other industries (behind coal and ahead of nuclear). It means that Ukraine has a significant competitive advantage, being able to take the lead in the area and leverage it for economic development. Importantly, AI is commonly used for combat-decision systems, civilian protection, operating critical infrastructure, image recognition at checkpoints, autonomous drones and ground vehicles. The report also suggests that the defence industry is also the leader in attracting venture capital (VC), receiving 10.15% of the whole amount (ahead of robotics and aviation). Yet Ukraine holds the last place among CEE for overall VC in AI startups, where Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic attract over a dozen times more funding. Ukraine received USD 2.3 million in 2016 and USD 10.8 million in 2023.

How startups are shaping the war effort

The key actor to capitalise on the domestic pool of talent for military innovation and AI has been the government coordination platform called Brave1. Launched by  key Ministries, the platform has established a bridge between its private and public sectors (government, startups and other stakeholders) as well as domestic and international actors (partners, investors and corporations). It simplified the procedure for innovation from five years to just a month for a defence product to get from a pitch stage to full certification and readiness to be procured. It set up a platform for creative collaboration and channelled grants to promising startups. As a result, this platform has accelerated innovation and established a form of public-private partnership.

One of the successes of Brave1 was when it became an AI-powered intelligence Griselda system, which gathers and processes information from satellites, UAVs, social media and hacked databases. AI analyses massive flows of information, ensures safe storage and automatically transmits information to relevant agencies. The entire process takes about 28 seconds, on average. Some of the important applications are feeding information into the Delta battle management system (aka ‘battlefield Google maps), which coordinates military units on the battlefield, and GIS Arta,  a system for artillery strike coordination (aka ‘Uber for artillery’).

Apart from intelligence, AI has also been used for developing modern weapons. Swarmer, a Ukrainian start-up specialised in developing autonomous drone ‘swarms’ has been working on how to link multiple drones into ‘intelligent swarms’. It refers to the fact that one operator could potentially manage up to 7 drones at the same time, which would be coordinated by AI. In 2023, the team received USD 50,000 from Brave1 and additional support from the D3 accelerator (average support amount to USD 125,000). The latter is a similar platform established by the Ministry of Defence, in 2023, to improve processes in the Ministry, reduce bureaucracy, enhance collaboration with the industry and fast-track military patents (AI as one of the priorities). Interestingly, one of its key investors has been Eric Schmidt, a former Google CEO and current US government advisor on AI.

Another important area for AI use is countering disinformation. Mantis Analytics was established soon after the beginning of the war to hold the frontline in the information space. This AI-powered system gathers information from social media networks, TV and radio channels and media in real-time. It identifies disinformation campaigns and promoted narratives and transfers them to relevant agencies for countering. Similarly, it became a member of Brave1 and received financial support. Around the same time, Osavul launched a similar AI-supported information security platform to conduct media monitoring, assessment of information environment and detection of information threats. Today, the platform is a key counterpart of the EU, US, Asia Pacific and Global South and has received at least  $1 million in venture capital to combat disinformation. Alongside Swarmer, it has been identified as the key defence startup in Ukraine by the Ministry of Digital Transformation.

AI and new global alliances

The US has been the biggest supporter of Ukraine in terms of total allocations, having provided EUR 75bn of support. Finding a list of munitions and equipment sent to Kyiv is also an easy task. However, the information on intelligence sharing and technological assistance provided (especially related to AI) is less clear and often confidential. Since the beginning of the war, the US has been risk-averse, trying to carefully calculate what is shared and what reaction it would provoke from Russia. Some of these tasks that have not been delegated, have been taken over by the private sector. It has provided Ukraine with essential support such as blocking Russian propaganda channels on social media, revealing the positions of Russian troops and supplying Ukraine with crucial intelligence.

The biggest example is Palantir Technologies, an American software company, specialising in AI-assisted big data analysis, which has been a long-term counterpart of the US intelligence and DoD. Since the beginning of the war, the company supported Ukraine’s army via its Gotham system – called ‘AI-powered kill chain’ – which is an operating system for decision-making that integrates different sources of data (images, drone footage and data from the battlefield) into an operational map, providing better situational awareness and control of operations. As part of broader cooperation, it signed an agreement with the Ministry of Digital Transformation to promote digitalisation, support the army and contribute to a ‘digitally-led reconstruction.’ Palantir has also been cooperating with the Prosecutor General’s Office on processing data related to nearly 80,000 war crimes committed by Russia. The company’s CEO Alex Karp, concluded that the effective use of AI technology in Ukraine has put it on the agenda list of world leaders.

Another important case is Clearview AI, a US-based facial recognition company, which has also been cooperating with the US army and law enforcement agencies. Interestingly, it was involved in investigating the participants of the January 6 Capitol attack. The system analyses open-source data, such as photos on social media to identify and match individuals with existing profiles. Clearview AI has successfully been used by 18 agencies in the government of Ukraine to investigate war crimes, identify deceased soldiers, detect infiltrators and enhance safety at checkpoints. In 2023, the software also helped to identify the location of 150 orphans and children in Crimea who could potentially be deported to Russia;  captured citizens of Ukraine and persons involved in the child abductions. In his initial proposal letter to the government, Clearview AI CEO Hoan Ton-That also suggested that the technology could potentially be used for family reunifications such as identifying refugees separated from their families.

Nevertheless, Ukraine is not the only party in the war to increasingly use AI in defence. Although there has been an outflow of tech workers from Russia as well as emergence of semiconductor shortages caused by international sanctions, Russia has been increasing its efforts to leverage AI. The President of Kalashnikov arms manufacturing concern highlighted that the integration of AI in drones is one of the key modernisation priorities. Moreover, there is some evidence that Russians have been using AI-supported drones since 2023 and have been testing kamikaze drones for ‘mass synchronised swarm attacks.’ Yet the use of the emerging technology is expected to be on a limited scale and is unlikely to be mainstreamed in the army any time soon. It is also unclear how much from the defence budget is allocated to research and development, which usually covers AI and related technology. In 2018, 95% of  the defence expenditures related to R&D were confidential, which is likely to be even higher now. In 2023, the number of ‘secret spending’ of the Russian budget, which is often related to military expenditures, went to the record 22.6% – from 16.7% in 2018.

At the same time, it is no surprise that Russia has been stepping up its cooperation with China, including exchanges on AI technology. As per the 2021 CNA report, Huawei has played a key role in the commercial AI cooperation, opening a number of research institutes specialising in areas such as facial recognition and AI. In 2020, it even signed a deal with the Skolkovo Innovation Centre to build an AI ecosystem in Russia by 2025 with over 20 universities, over 100 software companies and more than 100,000 AI developers. In February 2024, the governments of Russia and China also agreed to consult and coordinate with each other on the use of AI in military technology. The Russian statement also says that the two countries share the same approach when it comes to the use of AI and its regulation internationally (within the framework of UN CCW convention). While it is yet to be seen to what extent Russians have been using the AI-supported technology on the battlefield, it is clear that they do recognise the importance of the emerging technology, where one of its allies is a leading global AI power, willing to share its knowledge.

A case of AI-powered warfare?  

While the war in Ukraine has not turned into a scenario reminiscent of science fiction, AI has not taken over control of operations in place of human beings. However, the character of the war has become more technology-oriented, where innovation and emerging technology could be leveraged to level the playing field with a bigger adversary. In Ukraine, the use of AI has provided specific benefits on the battlefield, supplying comprehensive intelligence, better targeting, advanced communications and quicker decision-making. Its civilian authorities have also used it for investigating war crimes, countering cyber-attacks and addressing disinformation threats.

Ukraine has demonstrated that not only does it possess the necessary talent and economic base to capitalise on the AI revolution, but also the potential to become a regional and perhaps even global player when it comes to AI in defence. We are already seeing more exchanges between companies but also between Ukraine and states at the level of NATO, where technological cooperation is one of the key areas. In the long term, this growing international interest will ensure a greater supply of venture capital and more technological exchanges at the levels of companies as well as governments, which will ensure that Ukraine’s growing role as an AI actor remains sustainable.

Simultaneously, Ukraine’s adversaries have also recognised the importance of emerging technologies and have been stepping up their efforts, including in defence. While Russians are not yet widely using AI-assisted technology in their operations, it is only a matter of time before they manage to scale its use, especially through the ongoing technological exchanges with China.

In conclusion, while it may be premature to declare that we are witnessing ‘the first AI war’ in Ukraine, it is definitely laying the groundwork for future conflicts. Both commercial and state actors are already getting closely involved in developing and testing AI systems, setting the stage for its integration into future military and civilian infrastructure. Only time will tell, but Ukraine may very well become a significant reference point in the evolution of warfare.

The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.