War with Russia will start in the Arctic, unless leaders move to stop climate change

As the Munich Security Conference gets underway, the spectre of a third world war looms on the horizon. Military and political leaders in NATO nations have issued chilling warnings for populations to brace for the possibility of devastating superpower conflict.

Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, fired the opening salvo in the grim round of predictions. He cautioned that Russia could launch an attack within the next two decades. In words reminiscent of World War II, Bauer urged allied countries to mobilise citizen armies.

British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has gone even further, foreseeing potential wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran within the next five years. The situation is transitioning “from a post-war to pre-war world”, he asserted bleakly.

General Sir Patrick Sanders, the UK’s army chief, echoed that dark prediction. He described the British population as a “pre-war generation” that may need to prepare for conflict with an increasingly aggressive Russia.

German politicians and military leaders have discussed resurrecting mandatory military service in response to growing threats and Sweden has already introduced a form of national service as it closes in on NATO membership.

To many, the idea that increased tensions sparked by Russia’s attacks on Ukraine could lurch towards a wider European conflict seems not only probable but inevitable.

However, amid the drumbeats of international conflict, one crucial factor is being overlooked:  the impact of climate change as a potential trigger for war.

NATO has committed to taking a leading international role on climate and security. Yet the landmark climate agreement reached late last year at the COP28 conference in Dubai underscores the need for Western leaders meeting in Munich to raise their climate ambitions and translate them into tangible action.

NATO recognises climate change as a ‘threat amplifier’ for traditional security issues, but it needs to go further as studies indicate global warming is already rapidly accelerating the likelihood of armed conflict, especially in the Arctic.

Arctic icecaps are melting at record rates, making deposits of gas, oil  and minerals  worth trillions of dollars accessible for the first time. Over the coming years, this will spark a race for Arctic dominance that Russia is hellbent on winning.

With Russia holding over 53% of the Arctic Ocean coastline, Vladimir Putin believes domination of the region’s resources is critical to the economic survival of his regime. The Arctic is estimated to hold 412 billion barrels of oil and gas, about 22% of the world’s undiscovered reserves.

Putin is hardly trying to hide his agenda. Russia already operates a third more Arctic military bases than the US and its NATO allies. Now Putin is moving soldiers, icebreakers, warships and submarines to the region, as well as conducting Arctic drills that test hypersonic missiles capable of evading American defences.

His propaganda machine regularly releases pictures of troops training in white fatigues and clutching assault weapons as they zip over the snow on sleighs pulled by reindeer.

America and Denmark have filed sovereignty claims in the central Arctic Ocean but it was Moscow that, in 2007, planted a titanium Russian flag on the seabed two-and-a-half miles under the North Pole.

More aggressive Russian claims in the Arctic could force NATO to act and risk sparking the global conflict that the generals and politicians are warning of. While traditional military preparations for global war are undoubtedly vital, leaders convening at Munich must also prioritise climate action to mitigate the risk of global warming becoming the catalyst for a catastrophic clash.

Following the COP28 agreement to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’, NATO must modify its climate ambitions and let the consensus reached in Dubai guide its strategy to head off the threat of global war provoked by climate change.

The Dubai agreement has been endorsed by 198 countries, including NATO allies. However, in the words of COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, who is also attending the Munich conference: “An agreement is only as good as its implementation … We must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible action.”

NATO’s focus should extend beyond its current voluntary emissions reduction targets to include COP28’s agreement to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Since halting Arctic warming is pivotal to preventing conflict, NATO must also explore safe geoengineering solutions to slow or reverse Arctic melting.

It is time for world leaders to act in the knowledge that failure to urgently address the climate emergency exposes the world to the risk of a devastating conflict between NATO and Russia, as well as the wider environmental dangers of unchecked climate change.

This article is part of Friends of Europe’s Ukraine Initiative series, find out more here. The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.