Europe 2030 towards a renewed social contract?

The lesson learned from a decade of crises and disruptive events, within and outside Europe, is that basing our responses to our future can no longer be determined by the past alone. Whilst learning is key, the current vortex of events has shown us that we are ill-equipped to deal with the pace and unpredictability of simultaneous change.

The policy choices made in the next 24 months will affect our near-term future, and this is why in this pre-election year of a new European Parliament and a new college of Commissioners, we want to galvanise a big conversation across sectors and among communities about how to make Europe matter.

In order to think ahead and plan for the future we want, we initiated #EuropeMatters to reinvigorate the relationship between citizens and the European project. To this end we have involved citizens, key cross-sector stakeholders and foresight experts to create a matrix of the options, choices and consequences for Europe.

In advance of considering the policy choices for Europe 2030, this paper discusses the notion of a renewed social contract, sets out the trends, drivers and unknowns that are likely to effect it, and using strategic foresight, outlines four possible scenarios for a future Europe in 2030. The four scenarios and how these might inter-play are intended facilitate this process.

The report is a culmination of work over the past 6 months with our Board of Trustees; senior stakeholder interviews and a survey of 500 policy makers and informed by the views of citizens through our citizens online debating platform, Debating Europe. Using scenarios and data across a range of fields, the purpose of the report is to spark a debate on the future Europe.

Ahead of the European elections in 2019, Brussels and the EU member states should seize the opportunity to create an atmosphere of departure and engage in a debate about Europe’s future until 2030.