What will decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine – Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball

Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball, brought to you by Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow of Friends of Europe and former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General, provides a weekly overview of the current and emerging crises or threats in security and defence.

Using his past experience as an ex-NATO insider, his in-depth knowledge and insights gained throughout the years, Jamie casts his eye on the state of geopolitics in Europe and across the globe. He brings an independent view and essential insight into a range of conflicts and emerging threats on our shores and further afield.

Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball is essential viewing for anyone who wants to keep track of events as they unfold.

This week on Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball, Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe, analyses the elements that influence the ongoing war in Ukraine. Highlighting the recent escalation of the conflict, Shea examines the main factors that will decide the future of the war, namely the unity of the Ukrainian society, the Western support to Ukraine, Russian society’s support towards the war and the escalation of the conflict decided by Putin along nuclear threats and the annexation of 4 Ukrainian regions.

To mitigate and address these elements, Shea affirms that Ukrainian’s society has to remain very united, as it is the case since the beginning of the Russian invasion, while on the contrary Russian’s society support to the invasion is decreasing following partial mobilization and the escape of hundreds of thousands of Russians to neighbouring countries. He also asserts that the West should maintain a high support towards Ukraine, a key point for Ukraine to fight back Russian forces. Moreover, Shea advances 4 steps that the Western world should follow in the weeks to come.

First of all, the West should remain focused on its help on Ukraine and establish as a priority sending support to Ukrainian military forces around Kherson, as the fall of Kherson would be an important strategic victory for Ukraine and a harsh defeat for Russia. Then, Shea reminds that the West should be prepared as much as possible to get through a difficult winter along inflation and high energy prices. Nevertheless, Shea advances that the top priority for the West is to send clear warnings to Moscow about the use of nuclear weapons and the consequences it can provoke for Russia and the whole world.