Russian victory will trigger Europe’s biggest refugee exodus since Second World War, warns report by Friends of Europe

Brussels, 28 May 2024 – A Russian victory in Ukraine will trigger the biggest refugee exodus in Europe since the Second World War. This is one of the conclusions of the study “Cost of Inaction”, authored by Paul Ames, former AP NATO correspondent, launched today in Brussels by Friends of Europe.

As the paper warns, if the conflict drags on, millions of Ukrainians around Europe and beyond will be less likely to return to their homes. “In a worst-case scenario where Russia fulfils its annexation goals, Europe would face a flood of humanity”, writes Paul Ames, adding that up to 20 million Ukrainians could flee to the West.

“The billions being invested in Ukraine right now look like a lot of money to taxpayers but the cost involved in bolstering Western defences otherwise will be much, much more”, warned Paul Ames during Thursday’s launch. In attendance were 30 Ukrainian veterans who received a one-minute standing ovation from the audience for their bravery.

The cost of inaction would be immense for NATO, as a Ukrainian defeat would force the alliance to spread its forces thinly as they face off against Russians deployed along Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary.

“I believe that if everybody had done the same as Estonia, the Baltics, Poland and the Netherlands, then this war would have been over a long time ago”, said Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Estonia.

“We have to stand up for the values of Europe. This is about more than solidarity with the people of Ukraine. (…) The fact that we don’t really know how to act as European countries without help from America [means that] as we are working to help Ukraine, we are also working for ourselves, to make ourselves stronger”, said Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of Defence of the Netherlands.

“If there are military goals that you have to take out and they are on the other side of the border, that is part of your self-defence”, added Ollongren in response to a question from the audience about whether Ukraine should be allowed to attack targets in Russia.

“Ukraine is already a key partner in the energy sector. (…) Ukraine belongs to the EU and it will be an equal member of our single market. Despite the huge hardship, Ukraine has continued to pursue reforms to this end”, said Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy.

“There is no discount on the reforms needed for accession: accession is hard for candidate countries, especially if they are literally fighting for their lives”, said Gert Jan Koopman, European Commission Director-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, adding that “people tend to forget is that the process takes a bit of time” but “we’ve done bigger enlargements”.

In overall terms, this next wave is half the size of the previous one. Despite the war, Ukraine’s economy is one of the fastest growing economies in Europe and they have made substantial changes to their policies to enable them to join the EU.

The report analyses both the perils that could result from further Western inaction and the opportunities that will arise from Ukrainian success in defeating the invader. It is the result of over 20 interviews with members of the Ukrainian government and parliament, officials at NATO, the European Commission, the External Action Service and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as well as economic, security and international relations experts from several NATO and EU countries.

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Catarina Vila Nova
Press and Communications Officer
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