With or without Putin: Russia’s future after losing the war in Ukraine

Brussels, 28 March 2024 – The consolidation of power within the Kremlin, with or without Vladimir Putin, albeit undesirable, is the most likely scenario for Russia after a defeat in Ukraine. This is the conclusion of a recent report by Friends of Europe that outlines three scenarios of what will happen to Russia after Ukraine’s victory. One thing is certain: regardless of the outcome, the only pragmatic option to secure Europe’s peace and stability lies in sustained, robust, long-term military support for Ukraine, coupled with strengthening credible deterrence and defence capabilities of the EU and NATO.

Stalin’s methods, such as mass suppression of the remaining opposition and civil society, an increased military buildup and even greater militarisation of Russian society to prepare for another conquest. This is what consolidation of power in the Kremlin following a defeat in Ukraine but still with Putin in power would look like. However, regardless of whether Putin is replaced or power is transferred to another individual, pursuing the war in Ukraine will likely remain the paramount concern for the “new faces” in the Kremlin.

The most desirable but unlikely scenario is the “true federalisation of the Russian Federation”, which would create a system of checks and balances that would serve as a foundation for sustainable peace. As desirable as this would be, given the lack of democratic mechanisms and the chaos and turmoil Russia’s defeat in Ukraine might produce, this scenario is highly unlikely. However, despite the low probability of peaceful federalisation, a number of initiatives by ethnic groups within Russia are already advocating a federalisation of Russia as the only solution to counter Moscow’s aggression.

Finally, and perhaps surprisingly, the dissolution of power in the Kremlin is both undesirable and unlikely. Why? Because a dissolution of power unleashed by a crumbling of Putin’s power would be much less orderly and more violent given the lack of a mechanism for transfer of power and the ensuing power struggles would involve high levels of violence. Such a scenario would also embolden China and Turkey to exploit Russia’s weakening.

The paper also argues that Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will not be the result of a single military operation but rather a gradual accumulation of Ukrainian successes over a period of time and that the military option remains the only viable solution to restore Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.

The report “Revenge, implosion or reform – three scenarios for Russia after a defeat in Ukraine” is co-authored by Juraj Majcin, Programme Manager for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe, Hanna Liubakova, Journalist and Non-resident Fellow with the Atlantic Council, and Dmytro Zolotukhin, Lecturer at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and former Ukraine’s deputy minister of information policy. Other contributors include:

• Leila Alieva, Affiliate of Russian and East European Studies at Oxford School for Global and Area Studies
• Iulia-Sabina Joja, Senior Fellow and Director of the Black Sea Program at the Middle East Institute, Adjunct Professor of European Security at Georgetown University and George Washington University
• Iuliia Osmolovska, Head of the Globsec Kyiv office
• Valeriy Pekar, Lecturer at Kyiv-Mohyla and Lviv business schools, Co-founder of the New Country Civic Platform, Ukrainian entrepreneur, Vice-President of USPP, President of Euroindex
• Martin Poliacik, Deputy Director of the Globsec Kyiv office
• Dalibor Rohac, Senior Fellow at American Enterprise Institute, Research Associate at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels, Fellow at Anglo-American University in Prague
• David Rowe, Senior Professor of Political Science at Kenyon College and Fulbright NATO Security Studies Scholar
• Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe and former deputy assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges at NATO
• Paul Vandoren, former EU ambassador to Russia and former EU ambassador to Croatia
• Maksym Yakovlev, Head of Department of International Politics at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy

>>> Click here to see the complete report

On 25 March, Friends of Europe provided a briefing on the paper to NATO and PSC Ambassadors to seek their views on the scenarios and conclusions. The authors and contributors are available for interviews. If you’re interested, please reach out to Catarina Vila Nova (catarina.vilanova@friendsofeurope.org).

FRIENDS OF EUROPE ANNOUNCES THREE NEW FELLOWS FOR PEACE, SECURITY AND DEFENCE

Friends of Europe is proud to announce three new fellows for Peace, Security and Defence: Dr Leila Alieva, affiliate of Russian and East European Studies at the Oxford University School for Global and Area Studies, Dr Valbona Zeneli, non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and Mary Fitzgerald, non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and Trustee at Friends of Europe.

Leila Alieva has been working on Russia-West relations since 2015. She also teaches courses on Politics in the oil-rich and rentier states at the Department of Continued Education of Oxford University. In 2021-2022 she was awarded a Richard von Weizsacker Fellowship of the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin.

Valbona Zeneli served as a Professor of National Security Studies and Chair of Strategic Engagements at the U.S. Department of Defense’s George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. She is also a visiting scholar for 2023-2024 at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies at Harvard University and a visiting fellow at the Robert Schuman Centre (RSC) at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.

Mary Fitzgerald is a researcher and analyst specialising in the Mediterranean region with a particular focus on Libya. She has consulted for a number of international organisations including in the areas of peacebuilding and civil society. She has worked with the International Crisis Group (ICG), the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) among others.

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Contact us

For more information or to request an interview, please contact:

Catarina Vila Nova
Press and Communications Officer
catarina.vilanova@friendsofeurope.org
press@friendsofeurope.org